Sbi Research: Indian economy to surpass 7% growth in FY 23: SBI research report

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NEW DELHI: According to a report released by State Bank of India, the Indian economy is on track to reach a growth rate of over 7 percent in fiscal 2023, with manufacturing being the key driver.
State Bank of India research report, Ecowrap A study released on Friday said India’s fourth quarter FY23 growth is likely to be 5.5 percent, which would put the country’s FY23 growth at 7.1 percent.
This is in line with flash estimates released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) in January, which put growth at 7 percent for the year ended 31 March 2023.
According to Ecowrap, the diverse growth patterns emerging around the world present unprecedented challenges for policymakers, regulators and economists in assessing actual growth rates, not only for the current year – 2023 – but also for 2024 and 2025 after With the surprising turn of events last year, central banks’ control over the course of inflation was extended.
In the midst of this global hubbub is the SBI Research The report said that India is likely to continue its power struggle by taking a different tack, focusing on growth drivers and aiming for a renewed upswing in resilient manufacturing while helping the service sector to achieve greater efficiencies.
At the local level, domestic consumption and investment should benefit from better prospects for agricultural and related activities, stronger business and consumer confidence and strong credit growth, while supply response and cost conditions are expected to improve as inflationary pressures ease, the report said .
The focus of the Union’s 2023-24 budget on capital spending is expected to boost private investment, boost job creation and demand, and boost our growth potential, the report says.
The RBI estimates real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023 at 5.1 percent and the National Statistical Office (NSO) estimates for the full year for fiscal 23 is 7 percent. For 2023-24, the RBI forecasts GDP growth of 6.5 percent, with the first quarter (Q1) coming in at 7.6 percent.
SBI’s Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model, based on 30 high-frequency indicators from key sectors and matched/trained to GDP figure projection, forecasts quarterly GDP growth for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022-23 (Q4FY23) of 5.5 percent, said the SBI Research Ecowrap. At this rate, India’s FY23 GDP growth is expected to come in at 7.1 percent.
World Economic Outlook (WEO) report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of April 2023 revised the baseline growth forecast from 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.8 percent in 2023, before leveling off at 3 percent in 2024. It will come with a particularly pronounced Growth slowdown from 2.7 percent in 2022 to 1.3 percent in 2023.
Global headline inflation is likely to fall from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 7 percent in 2023 in the baseline, due to lower commodity prices, although underlying (core) inflation is likely to decline more slowly, the report says.
Meanwhile, India Inc continues to lead the economic turnaround while pursuing better operational and financial efficiencies, according to the SBI Research Ecowrap. It added that in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, about 1,700 listed companies reported revenue growth of 12, while the PAT grew about 19 percent compared to the same period last year. It added that the same group of companies reported earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of around 23 percent in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023.
According to the report, company results (excluding banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI)) for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023 showed both revenue and earnings growth of about 10 percent, while EBITDA increased by 7 percent compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022 percent grew.
Additionally, the report said it’s worth noting that the company’s margin, which has been under constant pressure in recent quarters, showed signs of improvement in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023. As shown by the results of approximately 1,500 public companies without BFSI, the EBITDA margin on an aggregate basis improved from 13.96 percent in the fourth quarter of fiscal 22 to 14.34 percent in the fourth quarter of fiscal 23, according to the report.
According to the SBI research report, foreign capital inflows into capital markets are also beginning to pick up, with year-to-date (YTD) inflows from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) totaling US$6 billion in FY24, a trend reversal starting in 2022 represents.
It also added that start-up funding has been impacted due to the US banking turmoil, particularly the failure of niche banks, but also offers domestic financial institutions an opportunity to contain these changelings’ financing needs internally to ensure the prosperity of India The space occupied is growing in a disruptive and disproportionate manner.





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