The quake was attributable to a strike-slip fault alongside the Sagaing line—a brutal reminder of the earth’s shifting fury.
In India, this devastation has solid an extended and looming shadow. The query now hanging over the subcontinent isn’t if such a catastrophe will strike right here—however when.
A geological guillotine: The Nice Himalayan earthquake
For many years, scientists have been warning of the inevitable: a “Nice Himalayan Earthquake” of magnitude 8 or extra that might tear via northern India. And the indicators are all over the place.
“India slides 2 metres beneath the southern fringe of Tibet each century,” defined Roger Bilham, a outstanding American geophysicist, in an interview with Instances of India. “Sadly, its northern edge doesn’t slide easily however is hung-up (by friction) for a whole lot of years and catches up in minutes when this friction is overcome. The slip occasions, which we name earthquakes, are the inevitable and unavoidable consequence of this movement.”
Bilham says that quakes exceeding magnitude 8 have struck the Himalayas each few hundred years. However for the final 70 years, there hasn’t been one massive sufficient to launch the strain build up within the Himalayan arc. “They have to happen. It isn’t a matter of ‘presumably’,” he mentioned.
Hazard Zones: Delhi, Guwahati, and the faults beneath our ft
Greater than half of India—roughly 59%—is susceptible to earthquakes. States like Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, and all the Northeast sit in high-risk zones. And it’s not simply distant cities. Delhi, Mumbai, and Kolkata are all constructed on harmful fault traces.Delhi lies in Seismic Zone IV, due to the Delhi-Hardwar Ridge beneath it—an extension of the Aravalli mountains. A shallow 4.0 quake lately rattled the capital and close by states, sparking a flurry of concern.
If a significant quake have been to strike throughout the day, when cities are teeming with exercise, the human toll could possibly be unspeakable.
Cracks within the concrete: Why buildings kill greater than quakes
In India, buildings are sometimes extra deadly than the tremors themselves. Earthquake-resistant development codes exist—however are routinely ignored. Builders lower corners, rules aren’t enforced, and the result’s a ticking city bomb.
Hospitals, faculties, energy crops—many aren’t designed to outlive a quake. When the earth shakes, they’ll be the primary to fall.
The Bhuj earthquake in 2001 price Gujarat practically $10 billion. The 2015 Nepal quake, which additionally devastated elements of North India, brought on $7 billion in damages. But classes haven’t been realized.
Classes from overseas: Why Japan and Chile are nonetheless standing
In contrast to India, international locations like Japan and Chile—who face related seismic threats—have responded with resolve. They’ve enforced strict constructing codes, developed rapid-response methods, and invested in neighborhood preparedness. Their cities aren’t proof against earthquakes, however they survive them.
India, then again, typically slides again into complacency as soon as the mud settles. “Preliminary shock, a burst of fast fixes, after which a gradual slide into harmful complacency,” is how one knowledgeable described it.
It doesn’t need to be this manner.
Blueprint for survival: What wants to vary
India doesn’t lack data. It lacks motion. The Bureau of Indian Requirements (BIS) has earthquake-resilient codes—however they’re typically disregarded. Builders who violate these codes ought to face strict authorized penalties.
Common structural audits are important. Some progress has been made: cities like NOIDA have tied up with prime establishments—like IIT-Kanpur, BITS Pilani, and CBRI Roorkee—for skilled audits. However there is a obtrusive scarcity of skilled auditors.
That is the place universities, technical institutes, and NGOs can step in. With certification programmes and mentorships, we are able to create a brand new technology of seismic security professionals.
Repair what’s already damaged
Many older buildings in India are outright harmful. Retrofitting them is crucial. However city progress is outpacing security. Corruption, lax zoning, and poor oversight have turned cities into dying traps.
Infrastructure like bridges and public buildings should be bolstered now—not after a catastrophe. We additionally want designated open areas in cities for folks to evacuate safely.
Colleges should educate earthquake security. Workplaces and residences ought to conduct common drills. Each family ought to hold emergency provides: torches, water purifiers, drugs, meals, and batteries.
What makes the subsequent one so harmful?
The Himalayan earthquake, when it comes, will strike land—not ocean. That makes it particularly lethal.
Bilham warned: “A future nice Himalayan earthquake (with magnitude between 8.2 and eight.9) will, nevertheless, be unprecedented as a result of the Himalayas are the one place on the earth the place such a big earthquake can happen on land, exposing about 300 million folks to extended violent shaking.”
And in contrast to coastal tsunamis, a land-based quake like this may strike on the coronary heart of India’s inhabitants and financial centres. The toll could possibly be catastrophic.
The tragedy in Myanmar should function a wake-up name. India has the science, the experience, and the engineering know-how to organize. What’s lacking is the desire to behave.
The following nice earthquake is inevitable. However mass casualties will not be. The time to brace is now—whereas we nonetheless can.
