In 7 charts: How India’s GDP has doubled from $2.1 trillion to $4.2 trillion in simply 10 years

India’s Gross Home Product (GDP) has doubled within the final 10 years – an enormous feat for an financial system that can also be set to turn into the world’s third largest in a number of years. India’s financial development has come regardless of a serious financial setback within the type of the Covid pandemic a number of years in the past.
In keeping with newest Worldwide Financial Fund (IMF) information, India’s GDP underneath the Narendra Modi authorities has seen 103.1% development in GDP at present costs or nominal GDP. It has additionally gone from being the world’s tenth largest financial system to the fifth largest.
How has India managed to double its GDP in simply ten years? What elements have labored to propel the financial system, which at one time had been infamously ranked among the many ‘Fragile 5’? As India appears set to turn into the world’s fourth largest financial system subsequent yr, and the third largest within the later a part of this decade, we check out 7 charts that present the unimaginable development story of India and ask specialists about what led to the 100% rise in GDP:
India’s Rise in numbers

When will India turn into the world’s third largest financial system?
Suggesting robust financial fundamentals, India will proceed to be the quickest rising main financial system within the coming years as nicely, says IMF. It has projected that India’s GDP will develop at 6.5% in each FY 2025 and FY 2026.
All different high 10 world economies will develop at a lot decrease charges – with China projected to see the second highest GDP development fee of 4.5%.
With a wholesome GDP development fee, the Indian financial system is anticipated to surpass Japan in 2026 because the world’s 4th largest financial system. It’s more likely to turn into the third largest financial system on the earth in nominal GDP phrases by 2028, in response to IMF projections.
India’s GDP is anticipated to rise to $5723.3 billion by 2028 and $6307.2 billion by 2029. In 2029, the world’s largest financial system, the US, is projected to have a GDP of $35458 billion – which is 5.62 occasions India’s GDP!

Within the interactive chart above, we check out India’s rise from 2015 to 2029 (projected). The GDP information for US and China will not be highlighted since they’ll proceed to the highest two world economies by these years.
What’s led to the doubling of India’s GDP?
Economists credit score the federal government insurance policies and reforms with give attention to manufacturing sector, exports, digitalization, GST and capital expenditure push for the infrastructure sector as main causes for the astounding rise in nominal GDP numbers.
Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Financial institution of Baroda says numerous elements have come collectively to allow this slightly outstanding development within the Indian financial system:
1. Agriculture has been very resilient on this decade however erratic weather conditions. That is one thing which has saved output ticking in addition to rural incomes steady.
2. India Inc has delivered fairly nicely through the years by way of enlargement of enterprise, funding, employment and diversification. This has created a really robust industrial sector. A number of industries are part of international provide chains.
3. The federal government has supplied a really facilitative framework for enterprise by a plethora of insurance policies like Make in India, PLI, tax regime, MSME loans and so forth, he tells TOI.
a. On the similar time the upliftment for the decrease segments by direct measures has elevated way of life as comes out from the consumption survey information.
b. The widespread use of expertise although the digitization course of has reduce down on price and ensured transparency in dealings.
c. GST has been a serious breakthrough which has improved transparency.
d. The fiscal deficit has been introduced underneath management with the main focus being on prudence which has allowed the federal government to spend extra on capex.
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4. The companies sector has been a serious driver of the financial system.
a. The service export part has been a serious driver of development.
b. The logistics and retail segments have seen exponential development with demand being sturdy.
5. The RBI has led to a sea change in several areas.
a. Made the banking system resilient and sturdy by leaning up steadiness sheets of banks.
b. Introduced in pro-active regulation to make sure stability of the system.
c. Financial coverage streamlined on international requirements with MPC to struggle inflation.
6. The big stream of FDI has supplemented home capital and enhanced funding within the nation.
7. The capital market has enabled elevating of each fairness and debt which is required for financing funding within the nation. Right here the regulator SEBI has been proactive all by to make sure there aren’t any mis-steps.
“Due to this fact, the story is certainly one of pragmatic polices, prudent regulation, profitable enterprise entrepreneurship which has moulded nicely within the strategy of globalization,” he tells TOI.
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In keeping with Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist at CRISIL, “The federal government’s emphasis on infrastructure improvement has contributed to higher-than-expected GDP development following the pandemic. The introduction of GST enhanced tax compliance and elevated authorities revenues, enabling better budgetary spending on infrastructure.”
DK Joshi additionally believes that the fast developments in digital infrastructure have facilitated environment friendly cost techniques, faster credit score supply, and fostered innovation. “The wholesome steadiness sheets of banks have additionally supported sooner credit score development,” he tells TOI.
Radhika Rao, Senior Economist at DBS Financial institution notes that previously decade, there was a powerful focus in direction of greater capital expenditure from the federal government in addition to households, with the latter mirrored in rising contribution to actual property and development.
She credit the successive budgets which have seen a pointy enhance in capex outlays, which has constructive multipliers for the financial system whereas the stickier income expenditure has been regularly rationalised.
“Concurrently, the composition of exterior commerce has additionally undergone a change with rising share of manufactured items in exports and robust positive aspects in companies, led by the contribution of world functionality centres. These haven’t solely helped make the web export steadiness much less damaging however have additionally helped to enhance the well being of the present account steadiness,” she tells TOI.
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India’s actual GDP development fee was 9.2% for 2023-24 – which is the very best within the earlier 12 years besides FY22 development (9.7%, which is highest since independence). The financial system has recovered nicely from the GDP development slowdown of Q2 FY2025, with a 6.2% development within the third quarter.
India appears set to rank among the many high three economies within the coming years. However in a world of accelerating financial uncertainties, and the specter of US tariffs looming, it should proactively handle its fiscal and financial insurance policies to remain on the excessive development path.