“These are good levels to sell the dollar because the lifetime low (intraday) was 83.17 this year and 83.25 last year. I am advising exporters to sell,” said K N Dey, managing partner, United Financial Consultants. The rupee had closed at a lifetime low of 83.15 on August 17.
According to Dey, the rupee has remained steady despite a weakening dollar and the Chinese yuan falling by 8-9%. “On September 1, 2022, the dollar index was 114, and the rupee was at 82/$. The dollar index then fell to 100 before rebounding to 104. During this period, the rupee has moved by just 1.5%,” he said.
With the monsoon on track and forex flows resuming, the exchange rate could return to around 82.5. “It is clear that capital flows are supporting the rupee, and there is a well-guarded plan by RBI to maintain a band that provides a lot of comfort to Indian markets – with the range likely to be between 82.5 and 83.5,” Dey added. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan hit a 10-month low before recovering some ground.