Earlier this week, Polish President Andrzej Duda overtly proposed that US nuclear warheads be deployed on Polish soil. “The borders of NATO moved east in 1999, so twenty-six years later there must also be a shift of the NATO infrastructure east,” Duda stated in an interview with the Monetary Occasions. “I feel it’s not solely that the time has come, however that it could be safer if [nuclear] weapons have been already right here.”
The next day, he repeated the assertion to the BBC: “Each strategic sort of infrastructure, American and NATO infrastructure, which we have now on our soil is strengthening the inclination of the US and the North Atlantic Alliance to defend this territory.”
Duda’s remarks epitomize rising uncertainty, and even nervousness, amongst Central Europe’s political elites, in mild of an abrupt shift (glass half empty) or a minimum of ambiguity (glass half full) of US overseas coverage beneath Donald Trump’s presidency.
The function of nuclear deterrence within the wider debate on Europe’s autonomous protection capabilities has turn into a sizzling matter in a number of capitals, particularly after the latest cooling of transatlantic relations. European leaders have kind of brazenly expressed their considerations and misgivings about the US’ reliability as a NATO ally.
Nevertheless, within the Polish case, the continued dialogue on the way forward for army cooperation with the US has a robust home undercurrent.
For Duda and his fellow Polish right-wingers, European ‘autonomy’ stays a mirage.
The ruling liberal coalition, headed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, has at all times been extra inclined to bolster ties with European Union (EU) companions, partially and implicitly on the expense of Poland’s bilateral bond with the US.
Therefore, for example, the Polish authorities’s efforts to reinvigorate the Weimar Triangle (a diplomatic format comprising Poland, France, and Germany), in addition to its extra sympathetic strategy to the intentions of Paris and Berlin to render Europe extra autonomous—each politically and militarily—and fewer depending on Washington.
Conversely, the earlier Regulation and Justice celebration authorities beneath Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki maintained strained relations with Brussels and saved a vital perspective towards Germany. On the similar time, it loved a thriving relationship with each the Trump and Biden administrations in Washington.
At present, the right-wing opposition harshly chastises the coalition in energy for its “excessively pro-European tilt,” accusing Tusk of intentionally making an attempt to “push America out of Europe,” in tandem together with his German and French colleagues. Then again, authorities officers and majority members of parliament lambast their political rivals for being “blindly Trumpian.” This divergence is among the major themes of the upcoming presidential election in Poland, the primary spherical of which is scheduled for Might 18. On this election, the pro-European mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, will compete with the pro-American conservative candidate, Karol Nawrocki. (My apologies for the slightly simplistic definitions, however they largely mirror the 2 contenders’ overseas coverage views.)
Due to this fact, the Polish president’s latest statements needs to be interpreted in a broader context of inside politics. Duda, elected ten years in the past on a reasonably conservative ticket and constitutionally barred from a 3rd time period, has been remarkably pro-American throughout his time in workplace. And since Trump’s second inauguration, he has been adamant in regards to the necessity of upholding glorious relations with the US.
Within the above-mentioned interviews, Duda was adequately subtle to concurrently reward French President Emmanuel Macron’s latest suggestion of unfolding the French atomic umbrella over different European NATO members. Nonetheless, the Polish president’s message was simple: These days, we’d like US army presence on NATO’s jap flank greater than ever—even within the excessive and apparently provocative type of nuclear warheads. It was a message aimed as properly on the home viewers and the federal government: Chances are you’ll dislike Trump’s insurance policies, and specifically his animus towards the EU, however turning our again on the US now could be preposterous and suicidal. For Duda and his fellow Polish right-wingers, European “autonomy” stays a mirage, an intriguing but elusive ambition, a minimum of in the meanwhile.
In a nutshell: it’s not a selection between Trump’s nukes and Macron’s umbrella. Poles could be happiest having each.
Marek Magierowski is a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Europe Middle. He beforehand served as Poland’s ambassador to the US and to Israel, amongst different diplomatic roles.
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Picture: Polish President Andrzej Duda speaks throughout the Polish parliament assembly in Warsaw, Poland on March 7, 2025. (Picture by Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto)
